They war-gamed dimming the Sun. It went even worse than you think.
Solar geoengineering simulation shows what happens when geopolitics takes over.
TL;DR
- A war game simulating international responses to solar radiation modification (geoengineering) revealed that scientific and rational decision-making was sidelined by geopolitical competition and mutual suspicion.
- Participants, including representatives of governments, NGOs, and tech companies, prioritized national interests over global cooperation, with countries like the US and China refusing to agree to international deals that might constrain their perceived advantages.
- Disinformation and accusations of secret research programs, such as a false report of a US geoengineering plane near the Bering Strait, escalated tensions and derailed negotiations.
- The simulation highlighted the significant influence of private companies and the fossil fuel industry, which subtly undermined scientific input and promoted technologies that could delay the transition away from fossil fuels.
- Ultimately, the war game concluded without any agreement, demonstrating how strategic competition and state sovereignty, rather than climate concerns, dominated the simulated decision-making process.