tech
February 11, 2026
Why the economics of orbital AI are so brutal
A 1 Gw orbital data center would cost roughly $42.4B—almost three times its ground-bound equivalent.
TL;DR
- SpaceX plans to build solar-powered orbital data centers with up to a million satellites, potentially shifting 100 GW of compute power off-planet.
- Current estimates suggest a 1 GW orbital data center could cost $42.4 billion, nearly three times the cost of a ground-based equivalent.
- Reducing launch costs to orbit, potentially to $200/kg from the current $3,600/kg, is a key requirement, with SpaceX's Starship rocket expected to play a vital role.
- Satellite manufacturing costs are also a significant factor, with a need for cheaper, high-powered satellites.
- Challenges like thermal management, cosmic radiation degrading chips, and the faster degradation of space-rated solar panels must be addressed.
- Orbital data centers are seen as more suitable for AI inference tasks rather than large-scale model training due to current communication and processing limitations.
- Despite the hurdles, companies are investing heavily, viewing orbital AI as a future growth area.
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