The most important thing in SpaceX's IPO sounds completely unhinged

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The most important thing in SpaceX's IPO sounds completely unhinged

SpaceX's IPO isn't really about rockets. It's about Elon Musk's plan to build AI data centers in orbit. Google agrees.

TL;DR

SpaceX plans to deploy "AI compute satellites" in orbit starting as early as 2028.
The concept involves moving AI infrastructure to space for unlimited solar power and natural cooling.
SpaceX believes terrestrial infrastructure cannot keep up with the exponential growth in AI compute demand.
Google is also working on "space-based ML data centers" through Project Suncatcher.
Both companies see the migration of AI compute infrastructure to orbit as a future possibility.
Significant risks remain, including technological viability and the required launch cadence.

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Elon Musk

The SpaceX team is incredible!

Elon Musk reposted

Arthur MacWaters

I called my engineer friend at SpaceX the other day.

1am Pacific. 3am in Starbase.

He was still in the office and not going home any time soon.

And he was happy. Energized. Because he's directly influencing the course of a multi-planetary future for humanity.

On a fundamental level, this is why Elon companies win. Young, high-competence people are given exceptional individual agency and semi-impossible problems.

And they know that their contribution is essential.

Any company that does this is much more likely to succeed. Elon does this without fail.

Inspires me a lot.

Elon Musk reposted

Resist the Mainstream

CNBC: "When you look at the SpaceX prospectus, what do you see in it that sounds fantastical… but you might think is real based on what you've seen accomplished at this point?"https://t.co/hNDqOnWdEq

Walter Isaacson: "I think what's fantastical is this notion of building data centers in the near term in low-Earth orbit or on the moon. But it makes a lot of sense… Elon has been able to make the impossible merely the slightly late."

Elon Musk reposted

The All-In Podcast

Jason Calacanis on SpaceX's Unknown Origin Story: Elon Wanted to Back Up the Biosphere in Space!

@Jason:

“Most people don't remember this, but when @elonmusk was starting SpaceX, the original idea when he was running around with Adeo and they were looking at some rockets and getting carriage from Russian rockets was to back up the biosphere.”

“And he came back from that trip and I remember talking to him about it and he said, ‘I think I just have to make my own rockets because that's actually where the problem is, and it would be easier just to make my own rocket to back up the biosphere.’

And he wanted to put geo-domes, like geodesic domes in space, with all the plants, wildlife, and creatures. What incredible vision.

And then there was the necessity of actually getting that up into space, and that's the unknown origin story.”

Yann LeCun reposted

Ed Elson

I read all 277 pages of SpaceX's IPO filing so you don't have to.

Losses up 700%. Revenue decelerating. 107x price-to-sales multiple.

It's a trainwreck. Full breakdown below 👇

Elon Musk reposted

DogeDesigner

"When I started SpaceX, one of my friends got a compilation of rocket failures & made me watch the whole thing. I knew the probability of SpaceX failing was high" — Elon Musk

Rockets are hard.

https://t.co/D2Y8JMTOzf

Elon Musk reposted

Brett Winton

On the remarkable return on capital potential for Starlink on Starship.

Including customer acquisition cost, ground station capex, and an expendable top stage, we think SpaceX should be able to launch its 10th commercial starship rocket for ~$500m.

The bandwidth it launches could yield $1.2 billion in revenue annually for as long as the satellites are in orbit. 13x cash on cash return.

For a time (100 launches or so) cash requirements per kg (and per tbps) of launch should roughly keep pace with the revenue decay in monetizing incremental orbital comms throughput. Basically, their per launch cost decline, driven by rocket upsizing, satellite manufacturing efficiency and full re-useability, should out-compete declining ARPU (or at least keep pace).

Net, very crudely, it works to the company being able to deploy $50b in capital building satellites, launching rockets and acquiring customers at a ~13x cash on cash return over a few years.

This is a business without precedent.

Elon Musk

True:

“They gave stock to everyone. There are a bunch of highly skilled workers that we on X never think of, like Tube Benders, Orbital Tube Welders, Cleanroom Technicians, etc. that are going to make significant fortunes.”

Elon Musk

SpaceX IPO info

Elon Musk

SpaceX

Elon Musk

The car that used to be in my garage is currently in an Earth-Mars elliptical orbit and will be there for at least 10 million years

Elon Musk reposted

DogeDesigner

Elon Musk unveiling Falcon Heavy at the National Press Club in Washington, D.C., in 2011 https://t.co/IXFIGKjkXF