OPENAI IS GOING TO TAKE THIS ENTIRE MARKET DOWN WITH IT
And you don't have to own a single share to get hurt.
What I'm about to explain should worry anybody who thinks they're diversified:
OpenAI is a LOAD-BEARING company. Pull it out and the whole structure comes down.
They spent $17.2 billion on Microsoft Azure in calendar 2025, which is 69% of Microsoft's entire year-over-year growth. Take that one customer out and Azure grew 8%, which barely beats inflation.
Now look at what Microsoft just reported:
The backlog everyone is celebrating came in at $678 billion, up 84%, and the stock ripped. Sounds fantastic until you realize that when you exclude OpenAI the backlog grew only 25%.
Back in January, when that number was $625 billion, roughly $281 billion of it was owed by one private company nobody can audit.
And Oracle is in even WORSE shape.
Something like $300 billion of its backlog, more than half, rides on the same counterparty.
So you think you own Microsoft, Oracle, Amazon, CoreWeave, Nvidia and SoftBank?
What you actually own is the same trade 6 different ways, and every leg of it runs back to one company that burns cash and still cannot go public.
The people with real money are already backing out.
Julien Garran pointed out that Masayoshi Son could not get a $10 billion bridge loan against his own OpenAI shares. Think about that for a second, because nobody says no to that man.
Blue Owl walked away from a $10 billion Oracle financing. Three months ago the banks were dancing near the door and now they are walking through it.
Then there is Julien's depreciation work, which makes this even worse:
Run the capex schedule out and hyperscaler net income falls 98% by 2033. To break even they would need to build 20 killer apps inside 6 years. Another Google Search. Another YouTube. Another Office.
They have not built ONE.
If OpenAI cannot go public in the next 8 months, they are dead.
Whenever you see hubris and debt in the same room, run, don't walk.
