economy
AI will not give you Fridays off
In 1930, John Maynard Keynes wrote one of the most optimistic predictions in the history of economics. Thanks to technology and rising productivity, he argued, future generations would work no more than 15 hours a week. They would have so much leisure time they would barely know what to do with it. Keynes was one of the most brilliant economic minds of the twentieth century. He was also spectacularly wrong on this question. In 1950, Americans averaged 38 hours a week. Today, we average 34. Nearly a century of technological progress, from electrification to the PC to the internet to the cloud, moved the needle by four hours.
TL;DR
- Keynes' 1930 prediction of a 15-hour workweek due to productivity gains has not materialized; American work hours have only decreased slightly over a century.
- While trials show a four-day workweek can boost productivity and employee well-being, the system under American capitalism tends to direct efficiency gains to output rather than worker time.
- New technologies like the PC and internet extended workdays and integrated work into personal lives, rather than reducing hours.
- Companies are more likely to assign additional tasks using AI-driven efficiencies than to grant more leisure time.
- Achieving a shorter workweek is a policy and cultural challenge, not solely a technological one, requiring legislative frameworks and a shift in workplace expectations.
- Iceland has successfully implemented reduced working hours through policy, while the U.S. standard of 40 hours has not changed significantly by federal law since 1940.