Dylan Patel – Anthropic & OpenAI will have most of the world’s compute by 2028
"Every force is screeching towards centralization."
TL;DR
- Anthropic and OpenAI are expected to control most of the world's usable compute within a few years.
- The shift from inference to training is accelerating as RSI approaches.
- Massive AI capital expenditure, potentially exceeding $10 trillion by 2030, could trigger a sovereign debt crisis.
- Hyperscaler debt may drive up interest rates, leading to bankruptcies in non-AI countries and a crash in non-AI equities.
- Forces driving centralization in the AI industry include economies of scale in training, compute scarcity, and continual learning.
- The ability of labs to monetize compute better than others allows them to outbid competitors for resources.
- China currently accounts for less than 10% of new compute deployment.
- There is debate on whether anything can counter the trend towards AI industry centralization.