AI was supposed to hit new grads hard. So far, unemployment data says otherwise.
“There is no evidence of any significant, widespread displacement or reduction in hiring.”
TL;DR
- A CESifo working paper argues there's no evidence of significant AI-driven displacement or hiring reductions for recent college graduates.
- Researchers analyzed US Census microdata on unemployment trends for graduates aged 22-25 from 2022 to 2026.
- The unemployment rate for recent graduates in summer 2026 (7.3 percent) was within the normal range observed in previous years.
- The study's findings contrast with a Stanford University study based on ADP payroll data.
- CESifo researchers suggest future graduating classes (2027 and beyond) might be more affected by increasing AI usage in the workplace.
- The CESifo study used data that accounts for both the supply and demand of jobs, unlike some previous analyses.