economy
America has a muddled recovery in manufacturing
New survey shows worries over the Iran war's energy shock, tariffs and supply chain chaos.
TL;DR
- Industry surveys suggest a U.S. manufacturing rebound, with activity expanding for five consecutive months.
- The Institute for Supply Management's manufacturing PMI reached a four-year high in May.
- New orders, production, and backlogs have all strengthened according to surveys.
- Respondents noted "extreme uncertainty" due to the Iran conflict, rising fuel costs, and supply chain issues.
- High input costs persist, with the prices-paid gauge near its highest levels since 2021-2022.
- Recent strength might be due to precautionary stockpiling, not a surge in demand.
- Factory output remains stagnant compared to several years ago.
- Factory payrolls have declined over the past 15 months.