Where does California’s Prop 40 stand? Here’s what the latest polls say
Attendees in San Francisco cheer during a “Ballots Over Billionaires” wealth tax rally on San Francisco, Saturday, Oct. 3, 2026. Polls show support for the proposed tax in decline.
TL;DR
- Support for California's Proposition 40, a proposed 5% wealth tax on residents worth over $1 billion, has declined, according to recent polls by UC Berkeley and the Public Policy Institute of California.
- Earlier surveys showed the 'Yes' side leading, but recent October polls indicate a shift, with opposition growing and neither side holding a clear lead.
- Proposition 40 needs over 50% of the vote to pass and will only be enacted if two conflicting ballot measures, Props 41 and 42, fail.
- Opponents, funded by wealthy individuals, argue the tax will cause residents to leave the state and reduce long-term tax revenue.
- Supporters, including progressive figures, believe the tax is crucial for backfilling federal cuts to the state's healthcare funding and preventing loss of Medi-Cal benefits.