Could California Prop 40 still pass? Here’s the math

In a remarkable departure from an apparently nationwide trend of sticking it to the wealthy and the powers that be, the fate of California’s Prop 40, a proposed one-time 5% wealth tax on the state’s billionaires, looks grim.

Could California Prop 40 still pass? Here’s the math

TL;DR

  • California's Prop 40, a proposed one-time 5% wealth tax on billionaires, is likely to fail.
  • Polls have shown a downward trend for the measure for months.
  • Culturally left-leaning counties have supported the tax, but more moderate and tech-heavy counties are trailing.
  • Betting markets predict the proposition's defeat.
  • Prop 41, intended to scrutinize tax spending, is also on track to be defeated.
  • Prop 42, which would ban further asset-based taxes, appears likely to pass.
  • Vote counting in California is slow, and final results may take until the following week.