Project Jupiter was conceived as one of the flagship sites in Stargate, the AI infrastructure push announced by Oracle, OpenAI and SoftBank alongside President Donald Trump early in his second term. But the New Mexico campus has become a test of whether the industry’s breakneck expansion can survive the slower realities of energy infrastructure and regulation.

First came the bottlenecks. The planned 2.45-gigawatt campus depends on gas-powered Bloom Energy fuel cells, yet the Energy Transfer pipeline meant to supply the gas was pushed nearly six months, to Feb. 1, 2027, after repeated permit denials. A separate air-quality permit remains pending, while residents and environmental groups have mobilized against the project.¹

Then came Oracle’s legal hedge. On Thursday, Oracle sent a force majeure notice to the developer, a Blue Owl Capital unit. The notice does not mean Oracle is walking away; it preserves the company’s right to delay payments if the site misses its 2028 opening target. Oracle’s position is emphatic: “Project Jupiter remains on our planned schedule,” it said, adding that it is “fully committed to New Mexico.” Blue Owl likewise said the notice does not alter the project’s multi-year financial commitments.²

That reassurance has not settled investors. Oracle shares fell 5% after the news, and concern has focused on the roughly $18 billion of debt tied to the campus. Oracle’s longer-dated bonds traded at distressed levels, while the cost of insuring its debt rose, signs that markets are reassessing the risks embedded in AI’s debt-fuelled construction boom.³

The divide is now clear. Oracle and Blue Owl portray the notice as prudent contractual protection, not retreat. Opponents and wary creditors see a more uncomfortable truth: even a marquee AI project cannot generate revenue—or comfortably support its financing—until it has power, permits and a functioning site.