The IMF’s latest outlook begins with a paradox. Global growth has held up through the Middle East war and higher oil prices, and the Fund projects expansion of 3.1% in 2026 and 3.4% in 2027. It also expects the US to grow 2.3% in each year, the fastest pace among the G7.¹

That relative strength has prompted the Fund to lift its forecast for world growth this year, but Tuesday’s upgrade came with a pointed warning: rising debt — including borrowing tied to artificial intelligence — is becoming a more prominent threat.²

The immediate shock has been softened by rerouted supplies and the drawdown of oil reserves. But the IMF says global stocks are falling by about 2.7 million barrels a day, leaving less protection against another disruption and helping push its inflation forecasts higher. Global inflation is now seen at 4.7% in 2026 and 4.1% in 2027.¹

The sharpest tension sits in the AI boom. The Fund sees technology investment as a cushion against the war-driven energy hit, yet warns that it has made the expansion unusually dependent on a narrow cluster of companies, industries and countries. “Without shoring up supply capacity and replenishing policy buffers, the global economy could soon test the limits of resilience,” IMF economic counsellor Silvana Tenreyro wrote.¹

The upside is substantial if AI delivers on productivity promises: stronger investment and faster gains could lift global output 0.6% above the baseline by 2029. The downside is equally stark. If those gains fail to appear, an investment retreat and market correction could leave world GDP 1.1% below baseline by 2028, and US output 1.8% lower.¹

As finance officials and central bankers gather in Bangkok, the Fund’s conclusion is less a victory lap than a warning: resilience has bought time, not immunity.