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Oct 21, 2026

Tesla’s Optimus Line Starts Moving, but the Hard Part Is Scaling It

Tesla says production-quality Optimus robots are now coming off a Fremont line, marking a tangible step for Musk’s humanoid ambition. But changing designs, a crowded market and an admittedly slow ramp leave the billion-robot vision far from settled.

Tesla has begun early production of Optimus at its Fremont, California, factory, shifting the humanoid robot from years of demonstrations toward a manufacturing test. The company said the units leaving the line are its “first production-quality bots” and that it has established a process suitable for a commercial product.

The move follows Tesla’s decision earlier this year to halt Model S and Model X production at Fremont and repurpose space for an Optimus line. The eventual target is extraordinary: one million robots a year at Fremont, with a larger Austin line planned for 10 million annually. Yet Tesla has not said when customers will actually be able to buy the machine.

Musk’s message has been celebratory but notably qualified. After Tesla’s quarterly update, he wrote, “Great progress by the Tesla team!” On the earnings call, however, he acknowledged that “there’s still parts of the design that are changing,” even as he predicted a 20,000-unit weekly run rate in roughly a year or perhaps longer.

That caution is central to the Optimus story. In a reposted summary of Musk’s remarks, he described the ramp as an S-curve whose opening stage is “a shallow slope,” adding that Tesla still needs to tweak the design despite having most of Fremont’s million-unit line installed.

Tesla is trying to build scale before the market hardens around competitors. Agility Robotics has deployed Digit at nine customer facilities, while Figure AI has announced logistics and distribution deployments; other firms, including 1X and Sunday Robotics, are preparing home robots. For Tesla, the factory start is a milestone—not proof yet that Optimus can become the mass-market product Musk says it will be.