Anthropic’s route to a blockbuster public listing began in June, when it confidentially filed a draft S-1 with the SEC. Its public prospectus, released this week, made the bull case unusually plain: revenue had surged from $4.7 billion in the first quarter of 2026 to $11.6 billion in the second, helping produce the company’s first operating profit; by June, its cash pile trailed only Google and Berkshire Hathaway among non-bank companies.¹

Then came the amended filing, and the scale of the wager snapped into focus. Anthropic reported $33.24 billion in revenue for the first nine months through September, roughly 1,200% above a year earlier, alongside a $104 billion net loss largely tied to revaluing convertible notes and derivative liabilities.² Third-quarter revenue reached about $17 billion, up 47% sequentially, while cash and short-term investments stood at $131.8 billion.³

The catch is embedded in the same paperwork: $895.4 billion in purchase commitments and leases, “substantially all” for compute and infrastructure. About $447.5 billion is due by the end of 2030, including nearly $70 billion within 12 months after September 30, 2026.³ Revenue growth remains breathtaking, but its pace slowed markedly from the previous quarter—a detail that turns the company’s future demand curve into the central IPO question.¹

Analysts see both promise and a difficult accounting problem. Anthropic’s first-half gross margin implied by its figures was 85%, but Violeta Todorova of Leverage Shares said it remained unclear what each additional dollar of revenue would cost as computing needs rise.⁴ Nick Patience of Futurum Group added that investors cannot yet see how much future capacity will train new models versus serve customers—“That split dictates future margins.”⁴

The timing is unforgiving. Market concern over AI capital spending has widened as major cloud partners confront tighter cash flow and more cautious capex signals. Yet their cloud growth remains strong, sustaining the argument that demand is real. Daniel Newman of Futurum Group called Anthropic’s prospectus “very impressive,” citing 1,300% annual sales growth and 900% net revenue retention; still, he warned that launching into this market would require exceptional caution.⁵ Anthropic is selling investors not just growth, but confidence that it can keep growing fast enough to pay for the machines.