El Niño is very likely to be the strongest since records began 75 years ago, feds say
People wade through a flooded road as heavy rain falls in Funabashi, on the outskirts of Tokyo, on September 21. Tokyo has been hammered by a record rain streak that bears the fingerprints of El Niño.
TL;DR
- El Niño has a greater than 80% chance of being the strongest since 1950.
- Equatorial Pacific Ocean temperatures are significantly above normal, with record daily surface temperatures in the Niño 3.4 region.
- Subsurface ocean warmth in the eastern Pacific is also higher than average, which can sustain El Niño.
- Impacts include prolonged dryness and fires in Indonesia, the driest monsoon in India since 1901, and a record rain streak in Tokyo.
- The Pacific hurricane season is exceptionally active, while the Atlantic season is quiet, a common split during strong El Niños.
- California is forecast to have above-average precipitation this winter.
- The peak of El Niño is forecasted to occur in December.