El Niño is now stronger than at any point in the last 1,000 years, study finds
“One more warning sign here of what we’re facing in a warmer world.”
TL;DR
- El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the largest source of year-to-year climate variation on Earth.
- A thousand-year temperature record from fossilized Galápagos corals shows that El Niño in the eastern Pacific has become significantly more violent.
- Modern ENSO temperature variability is 36.5% higher than during the preindustrial era (1000-1850 CE).
- Climate models incorporating only natural factors do not reproduce the observed increase in ENSO variability, indicating human influence.
- The intensified El Niño events are characterized by stronger warm swings.
- Global warming is expected to intensify ENSO's hydrological consequences, making wet phases wetter and dry phases drier.
- Scientists attribute the intensification of ENSO to human use of fossil fuels.