politics
Senators demand crackdown on wildfire "prediction market" bets
Fire experts warn such markets could incentivize arson.
TL;DR
- US senators have written to the CFTC requesting action against prediction markets offering bets on wildfires.
- Concerns include minimizing community suffering, potential incentives for arson, and insider trading risks.
- Polymarket hosts such bets, claiming they provide information, while Kalshi prohibits them due to perverse incentives.
- Wildfire experts and firefighting organizations are appalled by the existence of these markets, deeming them exploitative.
- The letter comes amid ongoing wildfires in the Pacific Northwest and an arrest for arson in Spokane, Washington.