Anthropic’s prospective IPO has become a high-stakes test of whether public investors will price explosive AI revenue as if it were already durable profit. Backers see a record-breaking debut; skeptics see a business whose biggest costs are still coming into focus.

The timeline accelerated in May, when Anthropic said annualized revenue had topped $47 billion and its valuation reached $965 billion after fresh funding. Investors now expect an October float at $2 trillion or more — above SpaceX’s $1.77 trillion June IPO — as the company’s enterprise-focused Claude models gain ground against OpenAI and Google.¹

The bull case rests on extraordinary growth. Some backers project annualized revenue of $100 billion to $120 billion by the end of 2026, despite a June slowdown linked in part to temporary Commerce Department restrictions on its leading models. One investor argued: “If Anthropic is growing 800 percent a year, you’d think at the incredibly low end they would trade at 30 times [revenue].”¹ Businesses, however, are also becoming more price-sensitive, with cheaper rivals and open-weight Chinese models pressing on Anthropic’s premium pricing.¹

The bear case is less about demand than what it costs to serve it. Anthropic confidentially filed with the SEC in June, but has not publicly set an IPO schedule. Its reported second-quarter revenue was expected to more than double to $10.9 billion, with an operating profit for the first time — a milestone that still falls short of net income after debt costs and taxes.²

At conventional large-cap tech earnings multiples, a $2 trillion company would need roughly $59 billion to $79 billion in annual profit, according to one analysis. Renaissance Capital’s Avery Marquez called the figure “definitely jolting,” adding that nearing operating profitability could make it “maybe not seem so crazy.”²

The next test is hidden in the eventual prospectus: whether Anthropic owns or has locked up the computing capacity needed to protect margins. Its deals with Amazon, Google, Broadcom and SpaceX offer a measure of insulation, but investors will be looking for proof that blockbuster revenue can survive the bill for chips, power and infrastructure.²