Washington frames its planned Venezuelan oil venture as a route to new supply and investment; Venezuelan political opponents see an encroachment on national resources, while analysts question whether an agreement built on unstable ground can endure.

The confrontation began with President Donald Trump’s announcement that the United States would take control of 65 billion barrels of Venezuelan oil reserves — a figure larger than total proven U.S. reserves.¹ The claim landed as high gasoline prices and a diminished U.S. crude stockpile sharpened the administration’s case for securing additional supply.²

Under the arrangement described by a U.S. official, interim Venezuelan President Delcy Rodríguez granted a private company a 100-year lease on prime fields. Washington would control 55% of the venture’s effective output through equity and production, while a Venezuelan private operator would hold the balance. Rodríguez said the plan could draw more than $100 billion in investment and generate $209 billion for the Venezuelan state; the official said future production could help replenish the Strategic Petroleum Reserve.³

The deal comes after years of collapse in Venezuela’s oil industry. Output has fallen to roughly 1.1 million barrels a day from a peak of 3.5 million more than two decades ago, meaning any serious revival would require vast investment, functioning infrastructure and oil majors willing to risk a return after earlier nationalizations. Chevron, Halliburton and Eni were reported to be weighing or pursuing expanded roles.

But the proposal has united critics across Venezuelan politics in denunciation, underscoring how little domestic consensus surrounds a project presented by Washington as an energy-security win.⁴ Dean Baker of the Center for Economic and Policy Research captured the larger doubt: “if Venezuela ever gets anything resembling a democratic government, the very first thing it will do is flush Trump’s deal down the toilet.”³ The immediate prize may be barrels on paper; the harder question is whether the political foundation survives long enough to pump them.