The reported offensive began with the Houthi seizure of Mokha, Yemen’s Red Sea port city roughly 75 kilometres north of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. The move immediately raised the prospect of the Iran-backed group extending its reach toward the narrow waterway linking the Red Sea with the Gulf of Aden and wider global markets.¹

Hamish Kinnear, a Middle East and North Africa analyst at Verisk Maplecroft, described Mokha’s fall as a “major blow” to Saudi Arabia. In his assessment, the Houthis had already threatened Saudi shipping from their earlier positions, but taking Mokha “opens up the possibility of further advances towards the Bab el-Mandeb coastline and a tighter grip on the chokepoint.”¹

A day later, several news agencies, citing Yemeni government sources, reported that Houthi forces had advanced onto Perim Island, the rocky outcrop that divides the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. That claim has not been independently confirmed, an important caveat in a conflict where battlefield reports can move faster than verification.¹

Still, the strategic logic is clear. Control or influence around Mokha and Perim would give the Houthis greater ability to menace vessels transiting a route that has become more important for crude shipments headed toward Asia since the U.S.-Israel war against Iran began in late February.¹

Energy analysts at ING said Mokha’s capture had increased the threat to shipping around Bab el-Mandeb, warning that Saudi energy infrastructure and Red Sea crude exports were “increasingly at risk.” Their concern dovetails with Kinnear’s: a prolonged war, and the absence of a likely near-term truce, could keep pressure on refined-fuel prices even if alternative routes and U.S. convoys soften the immediate shock.¹