The IMF entered its annual meetings in Bangkok with a modestly stronger forecast and a much sharper warning: the world economy has absorbed the Middle East war and higher energy prices, but it may be spending its resilience faster than it is rebuilding it.

On Tuesday, the Fund slightly raised its outlook for world growth while flagging risks from swelling debt, including borrowing tied to artificial intelligence.¹ Its broader projections put global growth at 3.1% in 2026, unchanged from April, and 3.4% in 2027, a 0.2-percentage-point upgrade. The US is expected to grow 2.3% in both years, the fastest pace among G7 economies.²

That durability has a cost. The IMF expects inflation to reach 4.7% in 2026 before easing to 4.1% in 2027, after higher food and energy prices pushed both forecasts upward. Oil stocks are being run down by roughly 2.7 million barrels a day as supplies are redirected, leaving less protection against another price spike.²

The Fund’s most pointed concern is the AI boom. Economic counsellor Silvana Tenreyro said that, without stronger supply capacity and restored policy buffers, the global economy could soon “test the limits of resilience.”² Technology investment has softened the energy shock, she argued, but is also “concentrating risks” in a small number of companies, sectors and countries.²

The divergence is stark. If promised AI productivity gains fail and investment retreats, the IMF estimates global output could sit 1.1% below its baseline by 2028, with US GDP 1.8% lower. If the investment boom delivers faster productivity gains, global GDP could instead rise 0.6% above baseline by 2029.²

For now, the IMF’s message is neither triumph nor alarmism: resilience has held—but it is no substitute for reserves, fiscal room and a less concentrated recovery.