Since the AI spending frenzy began in 2022, the divide has become stark. Apollo Global Management’s Torsten Slok says the technology giants have captured the gains while the rest of corporate America has largely stood still. For the so-called S&P 493—the S&P 500 excluding the Magnificent Seven—he found flat profit margins and revenue per worker, with no convincing productivity lift from AI.¹

The contrast is clearest in the numbers. Revenue per employee at major tech companies climbed from roughly $550,000 in 2022 to nearly $800,000, while the comparable figure for the rest of the index has hovered around $550,000 for years. Non-tech profit margins, meanwhile, have stagnated near 10%.²

Slok argues that this is more than a delayed rollout. “Despite massive investments and widespread hype around artificial intelligence, the technology has delivered zero financial payoff to corporate America outside of tech,” he wrote.¹ Companies beyond Silicon Valley are increasingly treating token spending as a margin-draining cost rather than a growth engine, he says, because cheaper models do not automatically create the judgment, trust and accountability that shape commercial decisions.²

Goldman Sachs sees a more conditional future. Chief economist Jan Hatzius expects AI investment ultimately to translate into stronger productivity and economywide profits, but says the investment boom’s contribution to US growth could peak in late 2026 or early 2027. Rising rates, AI-linked borrowing and a slower pace of AI capital spending could all weaken the near-term boost.³

The two economists agree that today’s gains are concentrated. They diverge over whether that concentration is temporary. Hatzius points to labor displacement as one route to eventual efficiency—while warning it carries “negative near-term macroeconomic effects.” Slok’s retort is blunter: “AI may be a great calculator, but in business, intelligence is mostly judgment.”³