China’s latest export-control push builds on a strategy Xi Jinping set out during the pandemic, when shortages of advanced medical equipment and components exposed Beijing’s own external dependencies. His answer was to cultivate “trump card” technologies—from renewable energy to telecommunications—that could make China more self-reliant while discouraging others from cutting ties.¹

That logic has now moved from strategy to a widening list of restrictions. Over the past month, Beijing has targeted dozens of technologies, including drones, AI models and agents, processes for advanced medicines, and solar-panel manufacturing. It is also preparing to control sales of tunnel-boring machines, enormous Chinese-made systems used by India to build Himalayan infrastructure near its contested border with China.²

China’s stated case is defensive: its companies spent decades and billions building dominance in industries such as solar equipment, and officials say controls can prevent competitors from reproducing those supply chains while screening technologies with military or cyber uses. Sun Chenghao of Tsinghua University said Beijing is thinking more systematically about what can be exported, to whom, and for what final use—citing AI cyber risks and the potential military applications of boring and dredging equipment.²

But the timing also reflects a harsher U.S.-China contest. Washington’s restrictions on Chinese access to advanced chips and software have constrained China’s AI ambitions; Beijing, in turn, used rare-earth export curbs to win a trade truce. As China worries that other countries are developing alternative rare-earth supplies, it is seeking fresh sources of leverage. “What other cards does China have in hand?” asked Fudan University scholar Zhao Minghao.¹

The gamble could backfire. India had already begun looking elsewhere after delays in Chinese tunnel-boring-machine exports, while governments from the United States to Europe and Japan are rebuilding strategic supply chains. Scott Kennedy of CSIS warned that governing trade “through threats is unsustainable.”¹ Beijing may be strengthening its hand today—but also giving rivals a sharper reason to escape its grip.